Frank Hyman, Correspondent 

The fix is in and Bill Bell is in for the campaign of his life. Bell lost his seat on the county commission in 1994 when Republicans in Durham and across the country managed to pick up seats -- like that of U.S. Rep. David Price -- with fewer votes than they had lost with in '92. That meant Republican turnout was down in '94, but Democratic turnout was down even more, leading to heavy losses.

Durham and Bell could see a similar situation this year, and I'll tell you why.

But first a quick prediction for Tuesday's primary. My bet is that Diane Catotti, Eugene Brown, Farad Ali, Laney Funderburk, David Harris and Victoria Peterson will emerge as the finalists in the Nov. 6 general election, in roughly that order.

Melodie Parrish and Steve Monks will likely finish outside of the winner's circle, but they will be the measure of the Republican party's interest in this race. I expect them to draw in the low to middle four figures. The remaining two candidates will probably get a few hundred votes.

Now for the fix. Thomas Stith is no fool. But he's no political saint either. He's introducing Durham to the ways of Karl Rove and the late Lee Atwater. Some examples:

* Big Money. Stith started the race with more than $50,000 -- more than most local candidates raise in an entire campaign. Most of the money came from about 20 people with connections to development. Over the last 25 years, candidates with the most money have usually lost elections in Durham because they lacked the civic involvement or the contacts to gain the coalition of endorsements that it takes to win. But money can sway things -- if there's enough of it. Stith will be writing some big checks for robocalls and glossy mailers. Look for his pitch to be on TV and radio, as well.

* Candidate Caricatures. Stith's mid-Sept. mailer knocked Bell on crime. Fair enough. But he amplified the mailer's impact by including pictures of Bell that made the man look grotesque, a tactic we haven't seen in Durham before. It's nice to think that voters are motivated only by the issues, but in a country where the president gets elected partly because a lot of voters think they'd enjoy drinking a beer with him more than with his opponent, making fun of the way your opponent looks will get you votes. Hey, why not just Photoshop some horns or a Hitler mustache on your opponents' mugs? A strong reaction to this new tactic could have nipped this in the bud locally, but sadly the media and the bloggers have become jaded and incorrectly put citizens' concerns about this bad behavior down to partisanship.

* Gaming the Endorsements. The heavily Democratic Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black People didn't endorse David Harris, the leading African-American Democrat running for City Council. Instead, they endorsed former Republican Victoria Peterson -- who switched to Democrat six months ago -- and unaffiliated candidate Farad Ali. What gives? For years now, the Committee's leader, Lavonia Allison, has led efforts to modify the voting rules for endorsement meetings specifically to keep Stith, a Republican, from packing his supporters in the meetings and swamping the old guard. It hasn't worked, because Stith has learned to game the system. Four years ago, those rule changes kept Stith from getting the endorsement in the primary, but he managed to get the endorsement back and win the general election. Stith wasn't on the ballot for this primary, but it looks like the African-American candidates most likely to support him, Peterson and Ali, benefited from Stith's supporters using a little jujitsu on the rule changes to benefit his campaign. If Bell's supporters are taking the Committee endorsement for granted, like Harris', they may have already been outmaneuvered. Stith, like Rove, isn't leaving anything to chance.

* Push the Immigration Button. Stith's robocalls to voters claiming that Durham was a haven for illegal immigrants was a two-edged sword. Pushing this issue now -- rather than anytime in his eight years on council -- will gain him support from whites who otherwise wouldn't vote for a black candidate. A Friends of Durham endorsement for black candidates traditionally only garners a third to half as many votes as FoD-endorsed, white candidates get in the same race. It will also gain him support among African-American voters who are losing jobs and experiencing depressed wages due to immigration.