Frank Hyman, Correspondent 

The night before the election, an otherwise even-tempered friend crossed the length of a restaurant, looked me in the eye and said, "Please tell me that Thomas Stith is not going to win the election. I'm scared." The best I could do was say that Bell would win -- if turnout was reasonable. And turnout of reasonable people on Nov. 6th was, well, reasonable. There's one less Republican on council (well, two less -- read on to learn why) and no net gain of Dems, but the council has moved a bit to the left. Final tally in the mayor's race? Karl Rove 0, endorsement coalitions 1.

You probably know the outcomes of the other races, so I'll assess the election in a slightly different way -- by organizations -- and with a little history thrown in. One of the juiciest battles I fought in the '90's helped lay the groundwork for this election day. So let's see who's left standing.

FRIENDS OF DURHAM: A self-described "moderate-conservative" organization, the Friends swung to the left by endorsing former People's Alliance president Diane Catotti and Eugene Brown, former president of the Durham Voters' Alliance (a group kindled by McGovernites after his loss to Nixon in 1972). So two of their four candidates won. Are they now an even more inclusive "liberal-moderate-conservative" organization?

DEMOCRATS: In 1995, I nudged the Democratic party to play a role in council's "nonpartisan" elections. I caught some flak (and a rare attaboy from the Herald-Sun of olde), but the idea has taken hold. Under the leadership of bread baker Kevin Farmer -- who says he wants to "put the blue collar back into the blue party" -- the local Dems have become a GOTV (get-out-the-vote) machine. Bell benefited from the canvassing, mailings and signs, as did David Harris, who leapfrogged over Republican Laney Funderburk from fifth to fourth place.

REPUBLICANS: The 'Pubs are losers and winners. They're winners because you simply can't build a party without putting candidates out there. They didn't win this time, but that may have to do with the public's mood regarding the Mis-Leader of the Free World. This mood may also be contributing to some other recent Republican losses -- Victoria Peterson has switched to Democrat and City Council member Howard Clement III has switched to unaffiliated. When asked about this Clement raised his index finger and said, "You know I've always been independent."

DURHAM COMMITTEE ON THE AFFAIRS OF BLACK PEOPLE: Former Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill said, "Don't get mad, don't get even. Get ahead, and opportunities to render justice will fall in your lap." Lavonia Allison, chair of the Committee, is using her death grip on the Committee to render justice and disenfranchise members. Allison's new rules have slashed the number of voters in the Committee. And apparently, those few voters denied Harris the Committee's endorsement because he voted against Allison's candidate in local Democratic party elections.

Meanwhile the Committee's endorsements matter less to fewer black voters: Peterson's endorsement only gained her about 500 more votes than she got the last time she ran without it; Harris received most of the African-American vote without the endorsement -- another week of campaigning in black precincts and he would have taken third place. And last year, two Committee endorsees were turned out from the school board -- by African-American candidates running in majority black districts.

VOTERS: In most cases, a coalition of endorsements trumps big money in Durham. Bell's victory over Stith proves the rule, but Farad Ali's victory over Harris is one of the exceptions.

By Oct. 29, Harris had raised more than $4,000 but Ali had easily raised four times that. Developer Gary Hock, quoted in the Herald-Sun as saying that Stith encouraged him to support Ali, donated $1,000. The N.C. Realtors PAC donated another $2,000. (The Realtors smiled on Harris, too, but with a grin one-fourth the size.)

Granted, Ali will be better for Durham than Stith was, but I think Harris would have been a wiser, albeit quieter, leader. Some of Ali's early supporters were experiencing buyer's remorse as they learned more about the two candidates. The smattering of progressives backing Ali reminded me of the Tennyson/Robinson matchup for mayor in '97. Some progressives backed Tennyson, the more articulate candidate who would vote with them sometimes, over the less articulate candidate who would vote with them almost every time.

Ali will bear watching on taxes. The Realtors want to head off progressive moves like the real-estate transfer tax. And Ali has also said that if the tax base has grown (it grows every year) and Durham's needs are met (that can be loosely defined), he would support a tax cut. The wealthy would benefit most from that.

The final tally? Voters 3, Grudges and Big Money 1.